Uhuru lead over Raila intact: Ipsos

RAILA ODINGA | UHURU KENYATTA [PHOTO | COURTESY]

BY FRANCIS GACHURI FOR EDAILY

President Uhuru Kenyatta would bag 47 per cent of Kenyans’ votes, compared to 44 per cent for the National Super Alliance (NASA) presidential candidate Raila Odinga if elections were held today, an Ipsos opinion poll released Tuesday afternoon (August 1) shows.

Ipsos CEO Dr Tom Wolf says the research was conducted between 3rd and 12th July, 2017. 4, 308 respondents pooled from different regions in the country participated in the survey, which Dr Wolf describes as house-hold based.

“We had contacted 9, 354 respondents but narrowed down on 4, 308 responses. We focused on registered voters. We insisted on confirming which polling stations the respondents were registered,” said Dr Wolf while releasing the poll findings in Nairobi.

The question the pollster asked its respondents is: “If elections were held today, whom would you vote for as president and deputy president?”

The poll shows 5 per cent of the voters are still undecided on which presidential candidate they will back on August 8.

A further one per cent of the sampled voters said they will not cast their ballot on August 8.

Jubilee Party candidate President Uhuru Kenyatta would amass 88 per cent of the votes in Central; 26 per cent in Coast, 50 per cent in Eastern, 34 per cent in Nairobi, 40 per cent in North Eastern, 13 per cent in Nyanza and 65 per cent in Rift Valley.

NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga would collect 5 per cent of the votes cast in Central; 61 per cent in Coast, 40 per cent in Eastern, 56 per cent in Nairobi, 54 per cent in North Eastern, 80 per cent in Nyanza and 25 per cent in Rift Valley.

Despite none of the presidential candidates attaining the 50 per cent plus 1 vote needed for round one victory, Dr Wolf says a runoff is highly unlikely because “the undecided hold the balance”.

Dr Wolf says the poll released by Ipsos on Tuesday, August 1 is the last by the firm ahead of the general election.

“This is the last poll we are releasing. The electoral opinion polls act dictates we don’t carry out any political polling or releasing of poll results at least 5 days to the general election,” he said.

In the same poll, 50 per cent of the respondents think the country is headed the wrong direction, 38 per cent think the country is headed the right direction, 10 per cent are not sure, while 2 per cent are undecided.

The poll also showed that NASA political formation has an approval rating of 45 per cent, compared to Jubilee Party’s 41 per cent.

The Tuesday poll shows Raila Odinga has reduced the gap between him and Uhuru Kenyatta by 1 per cent if the recent Ipsos survey is compared to a July 23, 2017 Ipsos survey, which showed Uhuru lead with 47 per cent compared to Raila’s then-43 per cent.

The Ipsos poll comes a few hours after an Infotrak poll placed Odinga ahead of Uhuru. In the Infotrak poll, Odinga had amassed 49 per cent of the sampled voters, compared to Uhuru’s 48 per cent.

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